Ogallala, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

347
FXUS63 KLBF 302101
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
401 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain and snow chances (20-30%) persist tonight into
  tomorrow, with little to no accumulations expected.

- A stronger storm system crosses the area Tuesday into
  Wednesday, bringing a threat for thunderstorms, accumulating
  snow, and gusty winds.

- The active pattern persists late next week, with at least
  some threat for precipitation persisting across the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Currently, the area remains under mostly cloudy skies, amid
lingering low level moisture underneath an approaching surface high.
Temperatures today have largely remained in the 30s, with the lone
exception being areas along/east of HWY 83 and near/south of I-80,
where enough breaks in the clouds has boosted highs into the low to
middle 40s. Elsewhere, a combination of cold advection, lingering
snowpack (north central NE), and persistent cloudiness has kept
temperatures cooler.

For the rest of today and tomorrow, expect lingering light
precipitation to persist across much of western Nebraska, as rather
nebulous forcing provides just enough lift. This comes in the
form of a subtle mid-level shortwave tonight, which tracks
across Colorado through early tomorrow morning. Enough of a
signal exists in guidance for some light snow to keep POPs
through much of the overnight period, primarily for areas
near/west of HWY 61. As the shortwave quickly exits the area
tomorrow afternoon, a brief lull in precipitation is expected,
before the next system of note begins to approach the area into
Tuesday. Highs tomorrow will again struggle to climb much across
the Sandhills and north central Nebraska, largely for similar
reasons to today. That said, southerly flow returns tomorrow
afternoon and this increasing warm advection should be enough to
boost highs back into the 50s across southwest Nebraska.

By tomorrow night, broad lee cyclogenesis will be well underway
across north central CO/southeastern WY. In response to this, a warm
front will lift through the area from north to south by early
Tuesday morning. This leads to broadly increasing isentropic ascent,
and a renewed threat for showers in advance of this lifting front
late tomorrow night. Warm advection looks to offset the diurnal
cycle enough to keep the p-type as rain, though cannot rule out a
few flakes mixing in at times. This precipitation should lift
northward out of the area prior to sunrise, with a brief period of
dry conditions into Tuesday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Attention then turns to a more impactful system, expected to impact
the area Tuesday into Wednesday.

By Tuesday afternoon, deep surface low pressure will begin to eject
eastward near the KS/NE/CO border intersection, with confidence
waning with its evolution into Tuesday evening. Unfortunately, the
track of this surface low and associated boundaries will need to be
watched closely for impacts to the local area. The primary feature
of note will be the surface triple point, as this will denote the
location of any severe threat locally. As of now, this triple point
remains uncertain, limiting confidence for now. As for threats,
ample low-level shear amid deep easterly surface flow suggests at
least some threat for supercellular convection immediately ahead of
the triple point, though lingering CIN and limited surface moisture
depth could temper things. Still, should robust convection establish
along this triple point, severe weather cannot be ruled in the form
of hail and strong winds. Low-level shear does suggest at least some
tornado threat, but low-level thermos do look somewhat detrimental
for now.

As the surface low quickly moves eastward into eastern NE/KS by
Wednesday morning, the area looks to be devoid of precipitation as
the dry slot moves overhead. The bulk of snowfall looks to fall
well north of the area across the Dakotas at this time, though
will need to be monitored going forward. The primary impact
locally on Wednesday will largely be gusty northwest winds in
the wake of the surface cold front.

The active regime persists into late week, with at least some threat
for precipitation continuing across the area. The most
substantial of which could occur Friday into the weekend, as a
deep upper trough begins to eject into the Plains from the
Desert Southwest. That said, solutions diverge with respect to
the evolution of this low, and confidence in placement and
amount of precipitation remains highly uncertain for now.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

IFR conditions remain across portions of northern Nebraska this
afternoon, eventually improving to MVFR by this evening, largely
driven by low ceilings. Otherwise, mostly MVFR conditions prevail
across western and north central Nebraska, again largely due to low
ceilings. Forecast soundings suggest low ceilings remain throughout
the TAF period, with a few sporadic pockets of 3,000 ft ceilings
this afternoon. Northerly winds remain this afternoon, becoming
light and variable overnight. By mid morning, winds begin to prevail
out of the southeast, picking up to around 10 kts.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...Richie