Ogallala, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

194
FXUS63 KLBF 222340
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
540 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions continue for the first half of the week with temperatures
  returning to above normal values by Tuesday.

- A passing cool front Wednesday will bring a slight cooldown
  and the potential for measurable rain (20-50%) across
  northern Nebraska.

- Above normal temperatures with gusty downsloping winds will support
  at least elevated if not near-critical fire conditions
  Thursday and Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 303 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Early this afternoon, clear skies revealed lingering snowpack across
the area. As surface high pressure crosses the Northern Plains, a
backdoor cool front will prolong cold air advection (CAA) across
central and eastern Nebraska. The combination of these two have held
temperatures in check with early afternoon readings in the lower 20s
to middle 30s northeast to southwest. Enhanced northwesterly mid-
level flow was helping to draw in some increasing high level clouds
with deep troughing to the east and a building ridge to the west.

For tonight, surface high pressure will extend south into eastern
Nebraska tonight with modest surface height rises expected across
our eastern zones. As mid-level dry air overspreads these areas and
winds at the surface remain light and variable, expecting overnight
lows to fall. The low temperature forecast was lowered tonight as a
result with values falling to near 0F long and east of Highway 183
but middle single digits to lower teens as you get further west.
While winds are light, wind chills could still manage to fall into
the middle teens below zero across central Nebraska. Use caution if
you`ll be outdoors for an extended period or heading out early
Monday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 303 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Monday...Ridging aloft should peak early Monday as the axis sets up
across the Great Basin. Ridging will be moderately strong as NAEFS
guidance highlights h5 heights exceeding the 90th Percentile for
much of the central and southern High Plains. Southwesterly winds
will increase during the day as lee troughing develops and surface
high pressure gradually settles east. Temperatures should rebound
nicely as a result in snow-free areas. This amounts to our far
western and southwestern zones where forecast highs should climb
into the middle to upper 50s. Elsewhere, snowpack will once again
hold things back with forecast highs only reaching the 30s/40s.

Tuesday/Wednesday...back-to-back passing systems will bring slight
changes to the weather, including the potential for light rainfall
on Wednesday. Ridging will be shunted southwest as the first of two
shortwave troughs dive southeast out of Canada into the upper
Mississippi Valley. This will result in a surface trough pushing off
the higher terrain and more westerly surface flow developing in its
wake. Though the influence of upper ridging will be on the decline,
the thermal ridge will remain anchored across the Central Rockies
and help boost high temperatures further. The going forecast calls
for highs nearing 20F above normal, humidity minimums in the upper
teens, and gusts in the 20 to 25 mph range...all of which combine to
promote elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions. A second
shortwave trough will dive across the Northern Rockies and eject
onto the Central Plains on Wednesday. The trend with this second
feature has been a later arrival and forecast highs for Wednesday
trending up as a result. ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index paints
positive anomalies for daytime highs across our southwest with
current forecast highs below the 25th Percentile in NBM guidance.
This suggests possible increases in temperatures and could result in
greater fire weather concerns. Day-over-day NBM output has shown
approximately 10F increases in all inner-quartile values and current
forecast highs range from the low 70s in the south to middle 50s in
the north. While temperatures have increased, low-level moisture
will as well and this will limit humidity minimums to 20 percent or
greater thus limiting fire weather concerns somewhat. Precipitation
potential arrives later in the day across the north. NBM
probabilities of seeing measurable rain (0.01" or more) top out
around 30-50% for areas north of Highway 2 during the afternoon
hours. Individual EPS/GEFS probabilities are much more muted, with <
20% of seeing measurable moisture anywhere in the local area. Still
though, deterministic guidance appears more bullish with
NAM/GFS/ECMWF all hinting at more impressive rainfall amounts along
the Nebraska/South Dakota border during the afternoon. This
discrepancy may lie with ensemble output smoothing out convective
elements. Deterministic solutions show non-zero instability and the
potential for the first thunder of the season for a select few.
Confidence in this is quite low so will omit any thunder mention
from the forecast at this time. All said, details remain murky so
continue to check later forecasts. Any precipitation should be out
of the area by late Wednesday evening with dry conditions for the
remainder of the overnight.

Thursday/Friday...moderate ridging will remain anchored across the
West Coast starting Thursday as troughing departs to the east across
the Great Lakes. Persistent northwesterly flow early on will
gradually transition to more zonal as troughing departs the eastern
CONUS. The result will be persistent and even strengthening
downslope flow for Thursday into Friday. Similar to Wednesday, the
current forecast highs fall below the NBM 25th Percentile and even
below raw MEX guidance. Overall the setup favors overachieving
temperatures so I anticipate these to climb in the coming days
should the current outlook hold. As h7 flow becomes more zonal, dry
air originating from the Great Basin will cross the Laramie Range
and work downslope into our western zones. Dew points appear likely
to fall into the teens and with current forecast highs, combine to
yield humidity minimums in the teens each day. The NBM seems bullish
on wind potential with 60% and 80% probabilities of exceeding 40 mph
gusts in our western zones Thursday and Friday respectively. As it
stands now, near-critical and critical conditions are expected and
should these values hold headlines may be necessary later on.

The weekend and beyond...considerable uncertainty exists for the
weekend into early next week. Low amplitude longwave troughing will
dominate the northern CONUS as a more pronounced shortwave ducks
under the Hudson Bay by early Saturday. Zonal flow appears likely to
set up across much of the central CONUS during the day Saturday with
influence from the Canadian troughing varying between GFS/ECMWF/GEM
solutions. Overall, the pattern seems to suggest ridging over the
Gulf of Alaska which usually winds up with cooler temperatures
across the central and northern Plains. NBM spread remains large,
with 25th to 75th percentile differences still exceeding 35F for
many western Nebraska sites. While the ECMWF/GEM show a moderately
strong high pressure over North Dakota sometime late weekend, the
GFS is much further north and east. The result is the latter being
much warmer and the formers being much colder. Given the GFS and
it`s respective ensemble being outliers at this point, I am inclined
to put more confidence in the ECMWF/GEM solutions. This suggests
much colder air working in sometime over the weekend with more
precise timing yet to be determined. This colder air may settle into
the area for the start of the following week before conditions
moderate again. At this time, uncertainties remain significant so
large variability in later forecasts remains likely.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 539 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through Monday with just some high level
clouds through the afternoon. The only concern will be some stronger
southerly winds by late morning lasting through the afternoon. Gusts
up to 25 knots are expected at both terminals.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...Kulik